As Western allies convene in Brussels to discuss their plans to train Ukrainian pilots on US-made F-16 fighter jets, several uncertainties remain regarding the provision of the aircraft and the

timeline for implementation.

According to Major General Rolf Folland, head of Norway's Air Force, supplying Ukraine with F-16s will not be a quick solution or a guaranteed success. Developing the capacity to operate advanced Western jets with sophisticated weaponry will take time for Ukraine.

During a large-scale allied air exercise spanning Norway, Finland, and Sweden, which involved 150 fighter planes, Gen Folland emphasized the importance of air superiority to avoid the kind of traditional conflict currently unfolding in Ukraine.

Ukraine faces significant challenges in achieving air dominance, as it lacks the scale and sophistication necessary to replicate such capabilities. Even procuring a small fleet of F-16s presents a major hurdle.

Belgian pilot "Pulse," who has spent three years mastering the F-16, highlights the complexity beyond just flying the aircraft. Operating the radar, sensors, and weapons systems requires extensive training. Ukraine, already facing a shortage of aircraft compared to its number of pilots, hopes to expedite this training process to a matter of months.

While Pulse recognizes the logic of providing Western jets to Ukraine due to their compatibility with NATO weapons systems, the issue of maintenance arises.

As many European air forces have transitioned to the more modern F-35, there should be available F-16s that could be allocated to Ukraine. At Orland Air Base in Norway, two old F-16s are currently utilized for training aircraft engineers, a process that takes up to a year or longer for senior technicians.

Handing over fighter aircraft involves a substantial logistical tail, encompassing spare parts, software, and weaponry. Col Martin Tesli, the base commander and former F-16 pilot, emphasizes the need to modernize Ukraine's fleet of aging Soviet-era jets. Without alternative aircraft, Ukraine may eventually find itself without an air force capable of defending the nation.

Maintaining the F-16s in Ukraine would likely require assistance from Western contractors. However, the risk involved in placing personnel on the ground raises questions about which country would be willing to accept such risks.

Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute suggests that Russia is more likely to target Ukraine's air bases if it is supplied with Western jets. This poses a specific threat to the F-16, which has a large intake capable of ingesting debris from runways.

The United States has long resisted Ukraine's requests for F-16s due to operational complexities and high costs, rather than concerns about escalation.

While providing Ukraine with Western fighter jets may not significantly alter the ground battle, Lt Col Neils Van Hussen of the Royal Netherlands Air Force believes it would enhance Ukraine's ability to sustain its current operations.

The ongoing war has demonstrated that even Russia, with its substantial air force, has been unable to achieve air dominance. Ground-based air defense systems have played a crucial role in preventing this outcome.

For the Western allies, the immediate priority remains supplying Ukraine with additional air defense capabilities, while the long-term goal is to rebuild Ukraine's air force. Photo by FaceMePLS from The Hague, The Netherlands, Wikimedia commons.