Last year, Estonia's trade with Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan saw a significant surge. The export of goods to Kyrgyzstan increased by more than
50 times, while Estonian exports to Kazakhstan skyrocketed from €11 million to €78 million during the first year of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2021. It remains unclear to what extent this growth constitutes bypassing Russian sanctions.
The Estonian government has observed a similar trend in other countries close to Russia. For instance, the value of goods exported to Armenia grew 19 times, and to Uzbekistan, it grew 1.3 times. The surge in exports to Kazakhstan mainly comprised agricultural machinery and vehicle spare parts that cannot be exported to Russia due to Western sanctions. Meanwhile, cars topped the list of exports to Kyrgyzstan. The transportation of goods from Estonia to Central Asian countries mostly occurs through Russia via truck or train.
Finland also experienced a significant increase in export volumes to Kyrgyzstan. Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported that the value of goods exported from Finland to Kyrgyzstan grew eight times in early March.
In late February, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released a report that revealed the export volume of EU countries and the U.K. to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia that are subject to Russian sanctions. The report showed that the export of sanctioned goods increased by 30% compared to unsanctioned goods.
However, the EBRD report highlights that the export growth falls short of compensating for the decline in trade between Russia and the West. The report further stated that the economic effects of the sanctions are more pronounced in Russia, leading to a decline in the overall economic activity and a significant depreciation of the ruble.
In conclusion, Estonia's trade with Central Asian countries has seen a sudden surge, with the export of goods to Kyrgyzstan increasing by over 50 times, and exports to Kazakhstan growing six times. The trend can be observed in Finland as well. However, it is still unclear whether this surge in trade constitutes bypassing Russian sanctions. The EBRD report indicates that the growth in exports is not enough to offset the drop in trade between Russia and the West. Photo by Sara Yeomans from Toronto, Canada, Wikimedia commons.