The population of the Netherlands is expected to grow steadily over the coming decades, though at a slower pace than in recent years, according to projections by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
The country’s population is forecasted to reach 19 million by 2037 and surpass 20 million by 2058, driven largely by migration and rising life expectancy.
CBS’s population projections for 2024-2070 reveal that the current annual growth rate of 105,000 people in 2024 will decline to an average of 82,000 per year over the next five years.
Migration as a key driver
Migration has been the primary contributor to population growth in the Netherlands, especially in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic caused a temporary decline in migration in 2020 due to travel restrictions, but numbers recovered in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, migration surged, largely due to the war in Ukraine, which brought a significant influx of refugees.
While migration is expected to remain a major factor, CBS anticipates a slight decline in immigration in the coming years, along with an increase in emigration as some immigrants return to their home countries. Nevertheless, immigration is projected to consistently exceed emigration throughout the forecast period.
Impact of aging and birth rates
The aging population will have a significant impact on the Netherlands’ demographic makeup. By 2040, one in four Dutch residents is expected to be 65 or older. The combination of an aging society and declining birth rates means that deaths will eventually outnumber births—a trend projected to begin around 2040.
Although life expectancy is set to rise, it will not fully counterbalance the effects of an aging population. CBS predicts that annual deaths, which have remained high since 2020 due to the aging population, will stabilize temporarily but begin to climb again in the 2030s.
Trends in birth rates
Birth rates in the Netherlands have declined since peaking in 2021. However, CBS forecasts a modest increase in the coming years, driven by a rise in the number of women of childbearing age and higher fertility rates among women over 30. Despite this slight recovery, the number of births will not be sufficient to offset the natural decrease caused by higher mortality rates.
Between 2028 and 2040, births are expected to briefly outnumber deaths. However, as the proportion of elderly residents grows, mortality rates will surpass birth rates, marking a sustained natural population decline.
Population milestones
As of early 2023, the population of the Netherlands stood at 17.8 million. CBS projects that the country will reach 18 million residents by 2025 and cross the 19 million mark in 2037. By 2070, the population is expected to grow further to approximately 20.6 million.
This long-term growth highlights the ongoing influence of migration and demographic shifts, underscoring the importance of planning for an aging population and changing societal needs. Photo by Sergey Galyonkin from Berlin, Germany, Wikimedia commons.