Poland has commenced parliamentary elections that carry significant implications for the country's future ties with the European Union and neighboring Ukraine. The ruling Law and Justice

(PiS) party, seeking a third consecutive term, faces challenges building a governing coalition, paving the way for opposition led by former EU chief Donald Tusk.

Opinion polls indicate PiS as the frontrunner, though the potential for a coalition remains uncertain. Polling stations across the EU and NATO member opened at 0500 GMT and will close at 1900 GMT, with exit polls expected immediately after and final results on Monday. Around 29 million people, including a substantial diaspora abroad, are eligible to vote.

A PiS victory could escalate tensions with the EU and Ukraine and raise concerns about media freedoms, women's rights, and migrants' rights.

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski advocates for a sovereign EU, while Tusk accuses PiS of having "secret plans" to exit the EU, emphasizing Poland's significance in Europe.

PiS is committed to judicial reforms aimed at combating corruption, while the EU views them as undermining democracy, leading to a standoff blocking EU funding.

The potential coalition partner for PiS may be Confederation, a far-right party advocating for reduced support for Ukraine and anti-migrant policies. However, the alliance seems unlikely due to tensions between the parties.

Liberals hope that Tusk's Civic Coalition can form a government with two smaller allies, even if it doesn't secure first place.

The elections encompass the lower and upper houses of parliament, and PiS has organized a referendum addressing migrants and the economy, which the opposition urges people to boycott.

PiS supporters seek to establish a strong, sovereign Poland grounded in traditional Catholic values.

The campaign has seen personal attacks on Tusk, accusations of working in the interests of Germany, Russia, and the EU, and an escalation of anti-migrant rhetoric.

Many voters express exasperation with the divisive campaign and polarized political atmosphere, desiring a better Poland with freedom and democracy.

Ukraine and its Western allies closely watch the elections in case Poland adopts a more skeptical stance on sending aid to Ukraine, similar to Slovakia's recent election outcome.

Poland, historically supportive of Ukraine, has taken in a million Ukrainian refugees but faces growing fatigue and disputes over a grain import ban.

Experts caution that the ruling party's shift towards nationalism could have lasting consequences for Ukraine-Poland relations. Photo by The Chancellery of the Senate of the Republic of Poland, Wikimedia commons.