Jarosław Pietras says using the prospect of leaving the European Union to force institutional reforms could backfire, putting Poland’s economic prosperity, international influence and citizens’ rights at risk.
Poland could find itself outside the European Union if it attempts to use the threat of withdrawal negotiations as leverage to force changes within the bloc, former Polish minister for European affairs Jarosław Pietras has warned.
Pietras described the strategy as a dangerous political gamble, arguing that it could produce consequences far beyond those intended by its proponents and potentially undermine Poland’s economic and social stability.
His comments followed remarks by Law and Justice (PiS) leader Jarosław Kaczyński at a political forum in Krynica, where he called for fundamental changes to the EU.
Kaczyński outlined several possible approaches to reforming the bloc, including influencing public opinion, negotiating a new EU treaty with a delayed implementation date, and pursuing what he described as a “hard and risky” alternative.
The PiS leader pointed to the withdrawal provisions contained in the EU treaties, suggesting that negotiations over leaving the Union could be initiated if other methods of reform proved unsuccessful.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded on social media, accusing Kaczyński of proposing that Poland begin negotiations on the terms of its departure from the EU.
Tusk said the country’s relationship with the European Union was becoming a central issue in Poland’s political confrontation.
A risky strategy with unpredictable consequences
Pietras warned that attempting to pressure the EU through the withdrawal mechanism could lead to an outcome Poland would struggle to reverse.
He compared the strategy with the approach taken by former British Prime Minister David Cameron, whose decision to use a referendum on EU membership to address domestic political pressures ultimately resulted in Brexit.
According to Pietras, Poland could face a similar situation if it presented the other member states with an ultimatum.
“If one member state makes this an ultimatum, the other 26 countries have a choice: either agree to it, effectively admitting that the country is right, or say: ‘We cannot allow this kind of blackmail to come at our expense. Do whatever you want, but we still want to remain part of the Union,’” he said.
The former minister argued that the other EU governments would be unlikely to accept demands made under the threat of withdrawal.
Instead, Poland could find itself pushed towards an actual exit from the bloc, despite the fact that the initial objective might simply be to secure institutional reforms.
Pietras described the proposal as “playing with fire”, warning that the consequences would affect the entire country rather than only its political leadership.
Economic and social costs of leaving the EU
Pietras said a Polish departure from the EU would have significant implications for businesses, workers and ordinary citizens.
One immediate consequence could be the reintroduction of border controls. Poland would probably no longer remain part of the Schengen area, meaning passport checks and other restrictions could return at its borders.
Trade with EU countries would also be affected, potentially disrupting the economic relationships that have developed since Poland joined the bloc.
Polish citizens could lose their existing rights to take up employment in other EU member states under the same conditions they currently enjoy.
Pietras warned that the resulting economic and social disruption would impose a substantial burden on the country.
Poland has received more than €273 billion from the EU budget since becoming a member.
However, Pietras argued that the financial transfers represent only part of the economic value of EU membership.
He said the advantages Poland derives from access to the European single market are considerably greater than the funds it has received from the Union.
Membership, he added, has played a major role in strengthening the foundations of the Polish economy.
Poland could lose international influence
The former minister also warned that leaving the EU would weaken Poland’s position on the international stage.
He pointed to the United Kingdom as an example of the difficulties a country can face after withdrawing from the bloc.
Pietras argued that Britain has yet to recover the level of international influence it enjoyed before Brexit, despite its considerable diplomatic, economic and political resources.
In his view, the UK was able to exert greater global influence when it was part of the European Union.
Poland, he said, has a less extensive network of international relationships than Britain and would therefore face an even greater challenge in maintaining its standing outside the bloc.
Pietras warned that a departure from the EU could leave Poland in a significantly weaker position, both economically and diplomatically.
The debate over the future of Poland’s EU membership has therefore become more than a question of institutional reform. For Pietras, the prospect of initiating withdrawal negotiations carries the risk of triggering a process that could fundamentally reshape the country’s economic prospects, international relationships and place within Europe.
