Slovakia's recent parliamentary elections have culminated in a victory for the populist, pro-Moscow Smer-SSD party, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, despite earlier exit polls pointing

to a triumph for a liberal centrist party. With nearly all votes counted, Smer secured a significant lead, garnering nearly 24% of the vote. One of the prominent promises made by Smer is an immediate halt to military assistance to Ukraine.

Robert Fico had previously resigned as Prime Minister in the wake of the 2018 murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. Now, his task is to initiate coalition discussions to shape the next government. The liberal Progressive Slovakia party, initially predicted to win the election according to exit polls, managed to secure around 17% of the votes. Meanwhile, the pro-European Hlas party, which could play a pivotal role in determining the future government, came in third with 15% of the vote. Peter Pellegrini, the former colleague of Robert Fico and leader of Hlas, remains open to potential coalition partnerships.

"The distribution of seats underscores Hlas as an essential party for any functional government coalition," remarked Mr. Pellegrini. Robert Fico may contemplate an alliance with Hlas, which parted ways with Smer in 2020, along with the nationalist Slovak National Party, which secured 5% of the vote. The new parliament may see the participation of up to ten different parties, ranging from libertarians to far-right groups, potentially complicating the coalition-building process.

While Mr. Fico disputes the label of a "pro-Russian politician," his victory is likely to be celebrated in Moscow but met with concern in Brussels and Washington. The prospect of Slovakia discontinuing its military support for Ukraine has raised alarm among European Union and NATO members, although it has garnered support on social media from Slovaks who have historically maintained warm sentiments towards Moscow.

Slovakia has been a staunch ally to Kyiv, providing surface-to-air missiles, helicopters, and even donating its retired fleet of MiG-29 fighter jets. In contrast, the Progressive Slovakia party envisions an "open, tolerant, cosmopolitan society" and advocates for a liberal approach within the European Union, particularly on issues like green policies and LGBTQ+ rights. Smer, however, derides this vision as "liberal fascism" and campaigns on the pillars of stability, order, and social security. Additionally, Mr. Fico expresses concerns about the increasing flow of migrants through Slovakia to Western Europe. Photo by EU2017EE Estonian Presidency, Wikimedia commons.